MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 182043Z - 182215Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WHICH
   COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT SUBSTANTIAL
   DESTABILIZATION OF A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED
   WITH SURFACE HEATING.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...AT
   LEAST POCKETS OF MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG APPEAR TO
   EXIST...WITH INHIBITION CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.  CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY NEAR MOBRIDGE...AND AREAS OF
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH
   23-00Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION
   BAND NEAR THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
   ARE FAIRLY WEAK...MODESTLY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-40+ KT
   AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS OR STORM
   CLUSTERS...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   44080082 44670126 45840180 46910188 48050042 48899927
               49689665 48969528 46619538 45489503 44029625 44079891
               44080082