MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEW YORK STATE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795...
   
   VALID 212034Z - 212230Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795
   CONTINUES.
   
   POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE WITHIN PORTIONS OF WW 795 LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TORNADO
   WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE
   ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN A
   CORRIDOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  THIS IS
   WHERE SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING UPPER 60S SURFACE
   DEW POINTS.  AS A SPEED MAXIMUM...EMANATING FROM THE APPROACHING
   50-70 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET...NOSES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN NOW
   AND 23-01Z...MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN WITH ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...COINCIDENT WITH A
   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.  THIS
   MAY BE ACCOMPANIED AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS AROUND/WEST AND NORTH OF THE
   NEW YORK CAPITAL DISTRICT.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/21/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...
   
   LAT...LON   42227579 42967493 43537458 44617435 44857330 43727274
               42707289 41847361 41687434 41847473 42227579