MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 802...
   
   VALID 250025Z - 250200Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 802 CONTINUES.
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW 802 FOR MOST OF THE
   EVENING. THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND SEWD
   ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NRN OH LATER THIS EVENING WHERE ADDITIONAL WW
   ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY.
   
   A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM SWRN
   ONTARIO WSWWD INTO THE DETROIT AREA AND WWD TO NEAR SOUTH BEND. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN
   LOWER MI. THE ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG/...MODERATE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR / 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT/...AND STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM.
   THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE LOW
   AND MID-LEVEL JETS ARE JUXTAPOSED MAXIMIZING SHEAR ACROSS SERN LOWER
   MI SUGGESTING A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER THIS EVENING AS
   A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE CONGEALS ACROSS THE SERN PART OF WW 802
   MOVING SEWD ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NRN OH.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
   
   LAT...LON   45198344 45208390 44848388 44838436 44488436 44528484
               44178482 44158509 43808508 43808551 43258554 43298578
               43198578 43188587 43088589 43128626 42698620 42258634
               42228619 42108621 42078580 42038435 41738435 41738342
               41948312 42318315 42378279 42568265 42668255 43128233
               43568214 44178225 44218338 44308324 44868321 44948327
               44988312 45108313 45248325 45438342 45358348 45198344