MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MA...ERN CT...RI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 151843Z - 152015Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE INTENSIFYING CELLS
   ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   MAY OCCUR BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT.
   
   A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN MA EXTENDING
   SWWD INTO ERN CT LOCATED IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE
   BOSTON VICINITY. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN NEW ENGLAND FROM
   THE SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS BEFORE MOVING EWD OFF THE COAST. THE WSR-88D VWPS AT BOSTON
   SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING SOME OF THE CELLS COULD
   APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING ANY HAIL THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL.
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE THE
   SFC MAY RESULT IN A THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...
   
   LAT...LON   43126980 43237010 42997062 42397122 42197149 41777200
               41357220 41177191 41087113 41247024 41596990 42376968
               42976971 43126980