MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2284
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT WED NOV 02 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL THROUGH E-CENTRAL CO...NWRN
   KS...SWRN NEB.
   
   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 
   
   VALID 020954Z - 021500Z
   
   THROUGH 15Z...THREAT EXISTS FOR MDT-HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY OCNL
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS SWATH OF CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS FROM TAD/PUB AREAS NEWD OVER LHX/LAA AREAS TO NEAR GLD...MCK
   AND PERHAPS HLC.  1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH
   ISOLATED/LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ACCOMPANIED BY LTG. 
   UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED SNOW OVER
   AREAS W OF I-25 SWD TO NEAR NM BORDER...WITH SOME 2-3 INCH/HOUR
   RATES REACHING ELEVATIONS BELOW 8000 FT MSL.
   
   MULTITUDE OF FORCINGS FOR DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AFFECTING DENDRITIC
   GROWTH ZONES ARE EVIDENT AHEAD OF STG CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH -- ANCHORED BY 500-MB LOW NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY OVER SW CO.  LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD THROUGH 18Z
   ACROSS SRN CO TO NERN NM AND SWRN KS.  LARGE-SCALE DCVA WILL BE
   JUXTAPOSED WITH MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AND PARALLEL/SW-NE
   ALIGNED BANDS OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
   SLANTWISE CONVECTION...INITIALLY OVER CO THEN EWD ACROSS KS BORDER
   BY 15Z.  MEANWHILE PROBABILITY FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER
   EXISTS BOTH NEAR COLD-CORE REGION OF CYCLONE...AS ALREADY OBSERVED
   IN S-CENTRAL CO...AND INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS ERN CO/WRN
   KS IN PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED CONVEYOR OF MOISTENING.  MUCAPE 100-350
   J/KG IS POSSIBLE...ROOTED BETWEEN 500-600 MB.  COMBINATION OF
   COLUMNAR DYNAMIC COOLING AND POSTFRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL SHUNT
   BOUNDARY-LAYER FREEZING LINE SWD FROM S-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB INTO
   W-CENTRAL KS ALSO...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO SPREAD NEWD
   OVER S-CENTRAL NEB BY 18Z.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   38520487 39250386 39740309 39570208 40290065 40439997
               39979957 39409986 38390118 37660230 37330305 37120365
               37120450 37490520 38380580 38520487