MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2303
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 081944Z - 082045Z
   
   A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN TX SHORTLY.
   
   ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING IS LIFTING NORTH OF SERN TX...
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD AID IN STORM COVERAGE INCREASING
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT AND 1 KM SRH BETWEEN 200-250 M2/S2
   WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...THE QUESTION IS
   WITH THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL THE SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WATCH. DISCUSSIONS WITH THE HOUSTON AND LAKE
   CHARLES NWS OFFICES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
   
   ..IMY.. 11/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   LAT...LON   30899607 31089497 31059393 30819370 30099369 29589421
               29549508 29749634 30379628 30899607