MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 141724Z - 141900Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND A TORNADO
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER CNTRL IL...WITH A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND INTO NWRN OH. PRESSURE
   FALLS HAVE ACCELERATED ALONG THE N OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS
   GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NOW EXTENDING N OF
   IND.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELDS NOW
   INCREASING NEAR THE LOW CENTER/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...AND ALSO
   BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A BIT SWWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE CIN HAS ERODED AS
   WELL. WITH CONTINUED FORCING AND POCKETS OF HEATING...STORMS SHOULD
   INITIATE SOON OVER CNTRL AND E CNTRL IL...MOVING QUICKLY EWD CROSS
   INDIANA AND INTO WRN OH LATER TODAY.
   
   DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG...AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
   ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. WHILE SOME UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO
   REMAIN UPRIGHT INITIALLY...WITH TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO
   MATURE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND. A STORM OR
   TWO MAY RIDE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH A CORRIDOR OF
   PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES POSSIBLE THERE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   38898904 39828912 40998837 41238687 41598438 41518376
               40938348 40008399 39538461 39048568 38838631 38698734
               38578833 38898904