MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0544 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SE TX...CENTRAL/SRN LA...EXTREME
   SWRN MS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 152344Z - 160045Z
   
   LOCALLY TIME-EXTENDED PORTIONS WW 885 ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z
   ALONG AND W OF SABINE RIVER.  ALTHOUGH THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED
   IN TERMS OF DENSITY OF SVR...AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND
   SPORADIC/WIDELY DISPERSED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE BEYOND
   00Z...PERHAPS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS REGIME SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS
   LA.  ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   BKN BAND OF TSTMS--MOST NON-SVR BUT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED/EPISODIC
   CIRCULATIONS--CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS EXTREME SE TX AND WILL
   AFFECT PORTIONS CENTRAL...WRN SND SRN LA.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
   PRE-STORM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR
   OVER CENTRAL-NERN LA...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F. 
   PRONOUNCED MOISTURE/THETAE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL/SWRN LA
   TRENDING TO SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S JUST N OF I-10 AND 70S FARTHER
   S.  THIS GRADIENT ALSO CORRESPONDS TO ONE IN MLCINH...BASED ON
   MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...WHERE SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
   PARCELS WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING ARE EVIDENT FOR SFC DEW POINTS
   HIGHER THAN ABOUT 67 F.  IN THAT AIR MASS...ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO MAY
   ROTATE WITH LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL...GIVEN FAVORABLE PRE-STORM
   PROFILES OF VERTICAL SHEAR.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE 60-65 KT WILL
   SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND
   100-300 J/KG.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   29719368 30139394 30749378 31399402 31819191 31459144
               31099119 29179107 29409155 29379118 29549143 29479161
               29659156 29659166 29489180 29579213 29529231 29569272
               29769321 29719368