MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1103 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE VA/NC/SC
   PIEDMONT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 241603Z - 241800Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL
   SUPERCELLS EXPECTED WITHIN AN ARCING BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS.
   PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH EVENTUAL THREATS
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW
   ISSUANCE IS 95 PERCENT.
   
   15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES ALONG A FRACTURED
   COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN VA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO CNTRL GA.
   AN ARCING BAND OF TCU/SMALL CBS RUNNING ALONG THIS AXIS SHOULD SERVE
   AS THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON GIVEN
   FURTHER HEATING AND AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF
   UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT
   WITH ADVERTISING THIS SCENARIO.
   
   EVIDENCE OF BACKING MID-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN 12Z GSO/RNK
   RAOBS ALONG WITH CURRENT FCX/RAH VWP DATA. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE
   HODOGRAPH MAY LIMIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY. HOWEVER...WITH
   TIME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SWLY WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL AND RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.
   WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...THREAT
   FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL SWLYS AMIDST MORE BACKED NEAR-SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
   BE MAINTAINED FARTHER E ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SHOULD AID IN THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/24/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   35278152 36158132 36888165 37368140 37598084 37548044
               37077948 36207925 34607989 33868072 33668137 33688190
               34068243 34428217 35278152