MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0831 PM CDT WED APR 04 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...WRN/CNTRL AR...NERN TX...NWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 050131Z - 050330Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HRS ACROSS SERN OK...WRN AR...NERN TX...AND NWRN LA. ALTHOUGH THE
   OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW...SOME STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   00Z LZK AND SHV SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE
   VALUES AOA 1300 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700MB. LIFT IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
   OVER CNTRL OK PROGRESSES EWD. ADDITIONALLY... EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   VALUES ABOVE 40 KTS SUGGEST STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH A
   RESULTANT DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND INCREASE IN CIN. AS A
   RESULT...THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. WITH ANY
   STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
   THREAT BUT DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE APPROACHING
   UPPER LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE VERTICAL VORTICITY VALUES BUT WEAK LOW
   LEVEL FLOW AND THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL
   TORNADO THREAT VERY LOW.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 04/05/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   35399474 35899441 35909334 35739261 34969237 34199236
               32649251 32209300 31949351 31949426 32179460 32569472
               33799500 34609502 35399474