MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/SWRN KS/WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091854Z - 092030Z
   
   SLOWLY INCREASING SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA WILL LIKELY WARRANT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
   INTO WRN OK...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES EXPANDING FARTHER TO
   THE W ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.  AS A RESULT...APPRECIABLE HEATING
   CONTINUES...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES NOW INDICATING ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE OVER THE ERN PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT WRN OK/SWRN KS
   E OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK DRYLINE.  
   
   THE AFOREMENTIONED MID CLOUD DECK LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
   LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
   SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING ALOFT NOW SPREADING INTO THIS AREA. 
   THUS...EXPECT THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   IMMINENT -- POSSIBLY ARISING FROM WITHIN A NEW CU FIELD NOW
   DEVELOPING OVER BEAVER CO OK/CLARK CO KS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED
   SURFACE WARM FRONT.
   
   GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- AND THUS MOST SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
   POTENTIAL -- IS APPARENT NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM
   FRONT...BUT WITH LOW CLOUDS -- AND THUS A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER --
   STILL PERSISTENT ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS...THE CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL
   IS FAIRLY NARROW ATTM.  S OF THE FRONT...THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD
   INTO WRN OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/09/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   38350079 38039945 37499831 36479753 35849845 35319906
               35299923 35260066 36640060 37610066 38350079