MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 062215Z - 062315Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND REMNANT
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CNTRL TX. ALTHOUGH DMGG WINDS AND HAIL MAY
   BE POSSIBLE...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE TX/OK AREA THIS MORNING SHOWED
   A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AMPLE SURFACE
   HEATING HAS GENERALLY RESULTED IN THE EROSION OF THIS LAYER...WITH A
   WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MUCH LOWER DEW POINT VALUES MIXING TO
   THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...ONLY WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS
   SURROUNDING THE DRYLINE. 22Z WV IMAGERY REFLECTS AN AREA OF IMPLIED
   FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM WRN OK INTO SWRN TX...WHICH MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR INITIATION/CONTINUANCE OF A FEW STORMS ALONG THE
   DRYLINE...WITH MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
   STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED. 
   
   FARTHER EAST...YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE LEFT TWO
   REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER CNTRL TX...WHERE AN ISOLATED STORM
   HAS FORMED IN LAMPASAS COUNTY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS GREATER IN
   THIS AREA...COVERAGE MAY INITIALLY BE LIMITED AMIDST SHORT WAVE
   RIDGING BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER FEATURE OVER ERN TX AND THE
   AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING ONE. AS SUCH...ONLY A LIMITED TEMPORAL
   THREAT MAY EXIST BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE
   AREA.
   
   ..HURLBUT/THOMPSON.. 05/06/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   34349902 33679872 33039873 32399877 31799839 31099777
               30719778 30499845 30329920 30579987 30820077 30580133
               30960134 31760075 33099981 34169925 34349902