MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 120002Z - 120130Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SCNTRL NM
   OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT
   PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SCNTRL
   NM NEAR THE WHITE SANDS MISSLE RANGE. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN AN
   MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
   AROUND 750 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL NM THIS EVENING
   SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL
   TURNING FROM 850 TO 500 MB. THIS ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/M SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
   STORM ROTATION. THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AROUND AN INCH
   IN DIAMETER WITH THE THREAT PERSISTING UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/12/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   LAT...LON   32270534 32600515 32900493 33120482 33380487 33550503
               33640541 33660582 33640611 33590631 33430649 33030665
               32600666 32220638 32110568 32270534