MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 122222Z - 122345Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM SCNTRL
   MS EWD ACROSS SRN AL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
   EVENING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER FAR SW MS WITH
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO SRN AL AND THE FL
   PANHANDLE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
   OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER.
   MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM THE
   WARM FRONT SWD WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 1500
   J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 40
   TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
   ROTATE AND APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE GREATEST
   FROM AROUND HATTIESBURG MS EWD INTO SRN AL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
   THE FRONT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER
   CELLS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED NORTH OF
   THE WARM FRONT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DROPPING OFF QUICKLY WITH NWD
   EXTENT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/12/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   30348599 30818762 31038856 31198929 31328974 31669001
               32068996 32328972 32528874 32318733 31928617 31498536
               31088523 30698539 30348599