MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC...CENTRAL/ERN NC AND SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 221829Z - 222000Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN SC THROUGH CENTRAL AND ERN NC INTO
   SERN VA.  WEAK WINDS/DEEP SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
   ORGANIZATION...THOUGH PW VALUES 1.3-1.5 INCH WILL PROMOTE HEAVY
   RAINFALL RATES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
   ATTENDANT TO PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY.  A FEW STRONGER CORES MAY SUPPORT
   AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
   
   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA
   INDICATED ONGOING WIDESPREAD TSTMS FROM NERN SC THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN
   NC INTO SERN VA.  A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT THE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
   ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   EXTENDING SWWD FROM SERN VA THROUGH ERN NC. INTERMITTENT STRONGER
   CORES HAVE OCCURRED OVER NERN SC INTO SERN NC ATTENDANT TO UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION ALONG THE TRACK OF AN UPPER VORT...PER WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...TRACKING NNEWD ALONG THE SRN NC COAST. THE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFTS...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST STORM
   ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED...RESULTING IN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
   WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..PETERS/WEISS.. 05/22/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   37067652 36917595 36017564 35087626 34647697 34287781
               33787866 33337926 33407977 34277959 34917988 35508019
               35897867 36287772 36757692 37067652