MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0818 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 260118Z - 260315Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS BUT ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE OF SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD PRECLUDE
   THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS QUEBEC SHOULD INITIATE
   TSTMS AS IN MOVES INTO NRN NY. 00Z SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS MLCAPE
   VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR
   30 KTS /BOTH VALUES COMPARE WELL TO THE ALB AND BUF 00Z SOUNDINGS/.
   THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A VERY LOW SEVERE THREAT. A FEW OTHER
   FACTORS...INCLUDING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING...AND THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALSO
   SUGGEST THAT STORM INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED. MOST LIKELY STORM MODE
   IS EXPECTED TO BE MUTLICELL/PULSE STORMS WITH A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR
   SMALL HAIL AND A FEW NON-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE
   OF SEVERE TSTMS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   ..MOSIER/HART.. 05/26/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   44147627 44647558 44917463 44817398 44607359 44147376
               43597434 43157516 42597640 42687698 43097722 43667620
               43897624 44147627