MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NM...TX SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR
   SWRN OK/WRN N TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399...
   
   VALID 160645Z - 160745Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THREATS FOR ISOLATED HAIL...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 1 INCH
   DIAMETER...AND A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT ACROSS FAR ERN NM THROUGH THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TO SWRN OK AND WRN
   N TX.  HOWEVER...STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
   OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER SUPPORT THE DIMINISHING TREND OBSERVED SINCE
   04-05Z IN THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
   SOUTH PLAINS MCS HAS CONTINUED TO ADVANCE E AND S...EXTENDING FROM
   SWRN ROGER MILLS COUNTY OK TO KNOX COUNTY TX...THEN ARCING SWWD
   THROUGH SWEETWATER TO SRN MIDLAND COUNTIES.  WARMING CLOUD TOP
   TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THE MCS IS DIMINISHING...THUS THE WATCH WILL BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR ISOLATED
   STRONGER STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON THE WRN AND ERN FRINGES
   ALONG THE ERN NM/W TX BORDER AND INTO SWRN OK/WRN N TX...
   RESPECTIVELY.  IN THESE LOCATIONS... WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE
   AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN 25-30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE RESIDUAL MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROMOTING UPDRAFTS.  STORM
   ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE WEAK...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR...BUT
   SOME CELLS COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN PRODUCING AN ISOLATED THREAT
   FOR HAIL AND/OR A STRONGER WIND GUST.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/16/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   32870121 32920247 33580336 34020349 34630342 34780308
               34800113 34909969 33519961 32909997 32870121