MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...SW ND...NW SD...NE WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 252009Z - 252215Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
   1-2 HOURS. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL GIVEN STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE IF A SVR WW IS NEEDED BY
   21-22Z. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
   
   DISCUSSION...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL SITUATION IS IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED
   WITH ELEVATED CUMULUS/MID-LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
   HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE CAP IS WEAKENING GIVEN
   DAYTIME HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND AS EVIDENT BY TCU/AN ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM NEAR BYG AND GCC. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THIS
   AFTERNOON AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEARLY 70...AT LEAST A
   STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREACH STRONG CAP. SHOULD THIS OCCUR
   THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...ADEQUATE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRONG INSTABILITY. LARGE
   HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
   AGAIN...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER/HOW MANY STORMS
   WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE STRONG EML/CAP IN PLACE. THEREFORE
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS TO DETERMINE IF A SVR WW IS NEEDED.
   
   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 06/25/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
   
   LAT...LON   46190691 46990598 47470504 47700433 47690388 47460312
               47080271 46690248 45880243 44910299 44180372 43710484
               43500569 43560619 44420665 44850701 45290734 45760719
               46190691