MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...NRN OH...FAR NWRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 290053Z - 290230Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER MI...NRN OH...AND FAR NWRN PA ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A POSSIBLE
   SVR THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN LOWER MI -- WITHIN A RELATIVE
   MINIMUM OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INVOF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW
   OF A TRIPLE POINT LOCATED 35 MILES SSE OF BAD AXE MI. ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR LEADING THE COLD
   FRONT INTO SWRN ONTARIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY
   INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE EXIT
   REGION OF A STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL 850-700-MB SPEED MAX. WITH
   GENERALLY 2000-3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN PLACE -- PROVIDED STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- AMIDST
   40-50 KT OF WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PER DETROIT AND CLEVELAND VWP
   DATA...ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY ENSUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
   AS TO WHETHER SUBSTANTIAL STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OWING TO NOTABLE
   CINH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR -- CHARACTERIZED BY 700-MB TEMPS IN
   EXCESS OF 15C -- WITH CINH REINFORCED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING. 
   
   GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
   VERTICAL SHEAR...AND GIVEN THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AREA...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
   EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM...MORE LIKELY AFTER 03Z. SHOULD THIS THREAT APPEAR TO
   INCREASE...A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/29/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...
   
   LAT...LON   42598377 43118314 43348251 43038147 42558033 42158002
               41538062 41268107 41078168 41068235 41248292 41528339
               41868370 42238386 42598377