MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1024 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NWRN KS AND INTO S CENTRAL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 290324Z - 290430Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...EVOLVING CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN KS/SWRN NEB IS SHOWING
   LIMITED ORGANIZATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEVELOPING COLD
   POOL.  SOME INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT...THOUGH
   WW REMAINS UNLIKELY ATTM.
   
   DISCUSSION...EVENING RADAR DATA HAS REVEALED A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN KS AND ADJACENT SWRN NEB OVER THE
   PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NEAR AND JUST N OF A W-E SURFACE BAROCLINIC
   ZONE NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THIS
   AREA.  
   
   EVENING RAOBS REVEAL A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE TOPPED BY SUBSTANTIAL
   ELEVATED CAPE...BUT THE MARGINAL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT -- SUPPORTIVE
   OF ONLY MODEST STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION -- WOULD SUGGEST
   ISOLATED/EVAPORATIVELY INDUCED GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
   WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.  HOWEVER...SOME EVIDENCE OF AN ENEWD
   COLD POOL SURGE -- ARISING FROM THE INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION -- IS INDICATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ATTM.  WITH
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY MORE
   CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS
   THIS AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WHILE WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM GIVEN LINGERING DOUBTS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...ANY SIGNS THAT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
   SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG THE COLD POOL SURGE IS OCCURRING COULD
   WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS/HART.. 06/29/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   40109734 39420019 39690086 40860166 41440224 42069919
               41629726 40109734