MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL...GA...AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 171621Z - 171745Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN UPTICK IN WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND
   AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...AS INDICATED IN UPDATED SWODY1...STRONG DESTABILIZATION
   WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN AL/SRN GA AND NRN FL WHERE
   LATEST MLCAPE WAS ESTIMATED AOA 3000 J PER KG IN MANY AREAS. A WEAK
   MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED
   CAPPING WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE
   ACROSS THESE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING RAPID BOUNDARY
   LAYER HEATING. WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE
   REGION LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL BE
   DEPENDENT ON VERY SMALL/SUBTLE BOUNDARY AND STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS
   DRIVEN BY OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND YET TO BE SEEN EVOLVING
   PULSE/MULTICELLULAR MODES. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF THETA-E LAPSE RATES
   AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING IN SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
   REGIME...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
   APPEAR LIKELY. IF THIS CONVECTION CAN COALESCE AND DRIVE UPSCALE
   COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT COINCIDENT WITH SOME ORGANIZING INFLUENCE FROM
   THE ELY WAVE ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MIGHT BE
   WARRANTED AHEAD OF OR AMIDST THE DEVELOPING GREATER STORM COVERAGE.
   
   ..CARBIN/MEAD.. 07/17/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
   
   LAT...LON   31018225 31868220 32208243 32178305 32298392 32718457
               33058496 33188516 33138573 32568609 32198609 31578595
               31058581 30438557 29928490 30208426 30208371 29938282
               30178252 31018225