MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN WI...FAR WRN MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 251957Z - 252200Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEVELOPING. THIS THREAT COULD
   BECOME ORGANIZED AND MOVE EWD INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
   LSE...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD NEAR THE MS RIVER. A COLD FRONT WAS
   MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MSP AREA...EXTENDING SWWD TOWARD FSD.
   MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO LIFT NWD ACROSS WI...EXTENDING
   FROM NEAR MSP TO GRB AT 20Z.
   
   STRONG HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR...WITH TEMPERATURES OVER 100F INTO SWRN WI. AIRCRAFT
   SOUNDINGS NEAR MSP INDICATE CAPPING BUT STRONG TCU DEVELOPMENT NE OF
   LSE SUGGEST CIN IS ERODING THERE. THE CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL WI SWWD
   ALIGNS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AS WELL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
   WARM AIR NEWD OVER THE WARM FRONT WITH PRESSURE FALLS NOTED OVER WI.
   TO THE W...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE SEWD...WITH PRESSURE
   RISES. FORCING OVER THE REGION SHOULD INCREASE AS THE FRONT
   PROGRESSES SEWD. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS CNTRL WI. WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45
   KT ALONG WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
   INITIALLY...BUT LIKELY TRANSITIONING QUICKLY INTO AN MCS WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ONCE FORMED...THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY
   PERSIST FOR SOME TIME INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..JEWELL/HART.. 07/25/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   LAT...LON   43368751 43888903 44209089 44409129 44729136 45109121
               45639015 45548923 45288784 44928695 44608615 44288598
               43798612 43528624 43408639 43348654 43318664 43368751