MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN OH/NORTHWEST PA/WESTERN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 260515Z - 260715Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IS
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN OH AND /MORE SO/
   NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED.
   
   DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/EXPAND AND
   GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI/SOUTHERN ONTARIO
   AS OF 05Z. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
   OVERNIGHT WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
   FLOW...POTENTIALLY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN OH/NORTHWEST PA/WESTERN
   NY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 07Z-08Z NEAR THE LOWER LAKES. PRECEDING THE
   MCS...IT IS YET RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AS PER THE 00Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDING FROM BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
   TO STEADILY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH AID OF A 30-40 KT
   LOW LEVEL JET PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS INDIANA/OH/MI...WITH
   THE CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z WILMINGTON OH OBSERVED RAOB /5000+ J
   PER KG MLCAPE/. WITH GREATER ACCESS TO WARM/MOIST ADVECTION JUST
   ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT LEAST THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
   APPROACHING MCS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND/PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL RISK
   OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF OH/PA/NY.
   
   ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 07/26/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   42628006 43127831 43117701 42607688 41987734 41227907
               41187927 40698041 40618103 41258253 41918113 42628006