MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI...CNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI AND NWRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540...
   
   VALID 302316Z - 310015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   PERSIST NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM EXTREME NERN WI INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN
   UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. ACTIVITY WILL SOON BEGIN TO CROSS LAKE MI.
   UNLESS THE STORMS MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...A WW WILL
   PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED FOR LOWER MI.
   
   DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
   FROM EXTREME NERN WI INTO THE ERN PENINSULA OF UPPER MI AND IS
   APPROACHING THE NWRN SHORE OF LAKE MI. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
   FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NRN PART OF LOWER MI WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
   ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. THE SFC LAYER
   WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
   HOWEVER...MODEST 850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
   DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE SFC. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL
   POSE A SEVERE THREAT FROM ERN WI INTO ERN LOWER MI THROUGH AT LEAST
   00Z...BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE LAKE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/30/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...ARX...
   
   LAT...LON   44288990 46488628 46078422 44578521 43938584 44018817
               44288990