MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 101803Z - 101930Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
   INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS A BIT
   MARGINAL...BUT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   DISCUSSION...A DISTINCT CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED
   40-50 KT 500 MB JET STREAK...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
   FLOW EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES CYCLONE...CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AREA AT AROUND 25-30 KT.  A CLUSTER OF
   VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...SUPPORTED BY LIFT OF
   HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
   EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...SURFACE DEW POINTS ABOVE 70/ WHICH EXTENDS IN A
   CORRIDOR NEAR...BUT SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF ATLANTIC
   COASTAL AREAS.
   
   AS THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATES TOWARD EASTERN
   MASSACHUSETTS/THE CAPE COD AREA...BETWEEN NOW AND 21-22Z...THE
   CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. 
   GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...HEAVY RAINFALL
   APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
   QUESTION.  THIS THREAT LARGELY HINGES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
   SOUTHERLY LEVEL-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED NEAR SURFACE VERTICAL
   SHEAR.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CURRENTLY APPEAR SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT
   MODEST STRENGTHENING AT WINDS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF
   RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/10/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...
   
   LAT...LON   41527273 42157222 42457148 42007015 41607011 40737291
               41527273