MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL SD...SWRN/S-CNTRL ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 291953Z - 292130Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL SD AND SWRN/S-CNTRL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT
   ARCING S-SWWD-WWD ACROSS WRN ND INTO SRN MT...WHILE A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDED S-SEWD ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO NWRN IA. THE AIRMASS S OF THE
   COLD FRONT AND W OF THE WARM FRONT IS VERY HOT AND WELL
   MIXED...WHILE CONDITIONS N AND E OF THE COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT ARE
   SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS ARE DEEPENING INVOF THE
   BLACK HILLS...WITH ONE CELL PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES.
   AS THIS CUMULUS SPREADS E-NEWD TOWARD THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SLIGHTLY
   GREATER MOISTURE AND CAPE IS ENCOUNTERED. IN ADDITION...OTHER STORMS
   MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES E TOWARD CNTRL
   ND. THOUGH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED
   FARTHER N NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG/SVR MULTICELL
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   ..GARNER/WEISS.. 08/29/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   47030282 47370171 46690061 44510047 43930148 44260257
               46170312 47030282