MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1866
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0724 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN SD INTO SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 030024Z - 030200Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS INCREASINGLY
   MARGINAL...AND THE 01Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED
   TO A SEE TEXT UNLESS CONVECTIVE TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.
   
   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS
   SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN PLUME OF
   SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MN WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
   IN THE 70S. IN ADDITION AN EML HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WARM
   SECTOR EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SFC BASED STORMS. THIS
   HAS BEEN REFLECTED ON THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS AND VERIFIED BY
   THE 00Z MINNEAPOLIS RAOB THAT SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION
   BASED AROUND 850 MB. SFC BASED CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN HAS DISSIPATED.
   
   WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH ENEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING INTO SRN
   MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO...CONFIDENCE IN SFC BASED THUNDERSTORM
   INITIATION IS LOW. A FEW STORMS /MOST LIKELY ELEVATED/ MAY YET
   DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND THIS
   MAY YIELD A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
   HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
   WARRANT A WW OR MAINTAINING A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA.
   
   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/03/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...
   
   LAT...LON   46269562 47929456 48429363 47799290 44259527 43549667
               46269562