MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 082155Z - 090030Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO EARLY EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW
   IS NOT NEEDED. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO IMPACT PARTS OF SW
   FL.
   
   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
   JACKSONVILLE TO E OF ST. PETERSBURG TO SE OF NAPLES. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THOUGH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
   MODESTLY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY
   MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WITH
   STRONGER INSTABILITY FOUND ACROSS SOUTH FL WHERE GREATER INSOLATION
   HAS OCCURRED. ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TO
   MELBOURNE...VWP DATA SUGGEST AROUND 15-30 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
   WHICH WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG
   CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.
   FARTHER SOUTH...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW PER MIAMI VWP DATA WOULD
   SUGGEST A MORE PULSE-LIKE MODE. HOWEVER...LIMITED STORM MOTION WITH
   THE WEAKER FLOW REGIME WILL SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FROM ERN
   CHARLOTTE/WRN GLADES COUNTIES SWD INTO WRN COLLIER COUNTY...WHERE
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
   DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/08/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   LAT...LON   27908050 27438056 26568078 26048129 26078163 26448180
               27428185 27908217 28368212 28938186 29578171 30148162
               30558165 30658152 30618138 30478136 29698118 28928083
               28628061 27908050