MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX...WRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 250701Z - 250800Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NORTH OF A WARM
   FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE LIKELY
   WITH LARGE HAIL POSING THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO
   08Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
   THAT WAS LOCATED FROM COT NEWD TO JUST NW OF HOU TO NORTH OF BPT AT
   06Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WAA IN ADVANCE OF
   AN INTENSE SEWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE APCHG W TX. THE ENVIRONMENT NORTH
   OF THE WARM FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY 40-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT
   IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 55-60 KT BY 12Z. MUCAPES OF 1000-1500
   J/KG WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS AND A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 08Z.
   
   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 12/25/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   30269302 30339422 30199495 29929562 29859628 30179685
               30539766 31019814 31519833 31949827 32249806 32409766
               32489717 32329611 32209514 31979429 31729341 31439287
               30929248 30269302