MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST KS/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND EASTERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141938Z - 142145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR
   DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB/EAST-CENTRAL CO. A SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MOST
   PROBABLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB/PERHAPS NORTHWEST KS.

   DISCUSSION...AT MID-AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
   EAST-CENTRAL CO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS /NEAR GLD/ INTO
   CENTRAL NEB /ROUGHLY NEAR BBW AND ODX/. NEAR/AHEAD OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...A DEEPENING/TOWERING CU FIELD IS SEEN IN VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A FEW INCIPIENT TSTMS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS
   EASTERN CO/NORTHWEST KS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS HOT/WELL-MIXED...WITH
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES AGGRESSIVELY CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S ALONG
   WITH A FEW LOWER 100S F. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP/MATURE...WITH A NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF TOWERING CU/TSTMS
   PROBABLE INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
   ADDITIONAL HEATING OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   OR BY EARLY EVENING...ADDITIONAL STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF EASTERN CO OWING
   TO AN INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WITHIN THE
   POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

   OVERALL...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /DEEP LAYER GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS/
   AND ADEQUATE CAPE/DCAPE WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
   DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE...ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH
   COULD BE NEEDED...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF
   NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB...WITH
   PROGRESSIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
   NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT.

   ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2013


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39430471 39870396 39410262 39700153 41439907 41609776
               40179832 38220186 38200324 39430471