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Mesoscale Discussion 123 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/MID-MS VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 201945Z - 202145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD FROM AR ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A PREDOMINANT LINEAR
MODE WILL TEND TO FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD...BUT
ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD YIELD EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE INCREASED WITHIN A
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND INTO S-CNTRL AR. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WIDESPREAD DEEP CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED INSOLATION AND
SLOWED DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...A PLUME OF 60-63 DEG F
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AS THE
COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERCEPTS THIS PLUME...A DISTINCT
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY APPEARS LIKELY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN STRONG AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN INTENSE 500-700 MB JET ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE N-CNTRL CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
LINEAR MODE AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WIND RISK WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND MODEST TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 02/20/2014
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36759031 37238986 37958903 38158814 37918757 37408764
35418912 34349013 34379087 35019099 35799083 36759031
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