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Mesoscale Discussion 509 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK...NW TX...TX ROLLING PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071854Z - 072000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE FROM SW OK SWWD INTO TX
ROLLING PLAINS. ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING AS THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST PAST 00Z.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY DRYLINE IS GENERALLY DEMARCATED
BY THE 60 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM WITH THE SECONDARY DRYLINE DEMARCATED
BY THE 45 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM. THERE WAS AN ATTEMPT AT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG THE PRIMARY DRYLINE IN THROCKMORTON COUNTY TX.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED...SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT IN
THAT AREA IS NOT YET SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. DEEPENING CU
IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF BOTH DRYLINES WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG EITHER THIS AFTERNOON.
MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED
PARCEL FROM SW OK SWWD THROUGH THE TX ROLLING PLAINS. SBCAPE IS
ESTIMATED FROM 1500 TO 3000 J PER KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES FROM 30 TO 35 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. HAIL OVER
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH-BASED CHARACTER OF THE
INITIAL CONVECTION. LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
WITH BOTH THE LEFT AND RIGHT MOVERS CAPABLE OF SVR. TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS LOW INITIALLY. WITH THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS PERSIST
PAST 00Z AS OVERALL SHEAR INCREASES BEFORE NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING.
..MOSIER/HART.. 05/07/2014
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31199996 31440040 32640130 33800026 34809962 35319936
35519869 35269787 34549781 34109797 33309821 31459917
31199996
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