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Mesoscale Discussion 608 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151915Z - 152015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A STRONG WET DOWNBURST OR BRIEF SPIN-UP IS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING IN A VERY MOIST/WARM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. PW VALUES OVER 2
INCHES RESIDE OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000
J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /LESS THAN 25 KT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR/ AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF
THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW BRIEF/WEAK
SPIN-UPS AND/OR WET DOWNBURSTS. THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AFTER PEAK HEATING OCCURS AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO
MOVE OFFSHORE. THE BRIEF/UNORGANIZED NATURE OF ANY STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/15/2014
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 29958139 29488091 28268033 26637991 25668006 25558035
25688062 26868138 28048178 28718199 29488212 29968185
29958139
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