|
Mesoscale Discussion 610 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK...FAR NE TX INTO CENTRAL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151956Z - 152100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING
IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...AND A SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCES S/SEWD TOWARD SE OK/CENTRAL
AR. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /NEAR
-25 DEG C PER REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/ COUPLED WITH SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD TEMPER GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL DESPITE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...BUT A STRONGER/SUB-SEVERE WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST CELLS.
..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/15/2014
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 33509501 33979558 34319570 34579541 34939458 35539305
35899219 35929182 35759149 35389139 34979148 34589164
34119203 33679267 33309372 33289451 33509501
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|