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Mesoscale Discussion 1174 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN KS INTO SW NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272019Z - 272145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS SW NEB AND NW KS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
GREATEST THREAT ACROSS WRN KS...BUT A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
22-00Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER MOST OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BETTER CU FIELD ACROSS SW NEB/NW KS
WITH PERHAPS A FEW CU DEVELOPING IN THINNER/BROKEN CLOUDINESS
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD DDC IN SW KS. 18Z RAOB FROM DDC INDICATED A
STOUT CAP STILL IN PLACE WITH A WARM NOSE OF 24 C AROUND 800 MB.
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE SOME WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE CONTINUES TO EJECT E/NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF HEATING...CAPPING SHOULD DECREASE SOME.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH GREATER SEVERE THREAT
MAY EXTEND ACROSS WRN KS.
MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND DRYLINE
COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS NW KS INTO SW NEB.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAS RESULTED IN A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS ANY UPDRAFT THAT DEVELOPS AND BREAKS THE CAP SHOULD BE
VERY ROBUST. ADDITIONALLY...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING WITH
HEIGHT ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LEE SFC LOW WILL MAXIMIZE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THIS AREA...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO FORWARD
PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTER/QLCS.
..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/27/2014
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39910231 41390273 41980281 42080214 41810150 41090059
40430007 39579936 39019913 38539925 37920005 37640088
37730172 38250205 39910231
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