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Mesoscale Discussion 872 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL KS AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032000Z - 032130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN KS AND FAR WESTERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. SPORADIC
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE COLD
POOL FROM EARLY MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS NE KS AND W MO. MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED TO NEAR 7-7.5 DEG C/KM THIS AFTERNOON
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KT COUPLED
WITH MODEST INSTABILITY WILL AID IN MAINTENANCE OF THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY TRACK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS
AND FAR WRN MO. GIVEN THE LIKELY ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE
STORMS...SPORADIC INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
THE RATHER ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 06/03/2015
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38679432 38189426 37959454 37989529 38149621 38619667
39149679 39399671 39559658 39399542 38969468 38679432
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