|
Mesoscale Discussion 1274 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO THROUGH EXTREME ERN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 383...
VALID 020052Z - 020215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 383 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST OVER NWRN THROUGH WCNTRL MO THROUGH
02Z...AND SEVERE THREAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO EXTREME ERN KS ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PERSIST FROM JUST SE OF KANSAS CITY EWD
THROUGH NCNTRL MO. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING
WWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW IN NERN KS THEN SWWD THROUGH SCNTRL KS. WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ARK THROUGH SWRN MO INTO SERN KS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY UNSTABLE FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND WAS SAMPLED BY SPRINGFIELD
MO 00Z RAOB INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES...3400 J/KG MLCAPE...250
M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. STORMS REMAIN PRIMARILY
DISCRETE. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING AS COLD POOLS MERGE AND THE SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUPPORTING
A SWD MOVING...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY
BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME ERN KS.
..DIAL.. 07/02/2015
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39149319 38239261 37219265 37259465 38919506 39149319
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|