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Mesoscale Discussion 1368 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402...
VALID 112056Z - 112300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS WW 402 AS STORMS MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE SERN
PART OF THE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS CNTRL IL SHOWS SEVERAL
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BOWING LINE SEGMENT LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF LINCOLN IL AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF CELLS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
ST LOUIS. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD INTO NRN IL EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...A SHARP GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY IS
ANALYZED FROM WRN IL EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN IL WHERE MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KT. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT OF A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WRN PART OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE
SEWD ALONG THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..BROYLES/HART.. 07/11/2015
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38778719 38428783 38418883 39009004 39549026 39838958
40348898 40738843 40548775 39558675 38778719
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