MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1017 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MO VALLEY TO CNTRL IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111617Z - 111815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD COMMENCE AROUND MIDDAY ALONG A
   COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH TO EAST
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT ALSO EXISTS
   WITH ELEVATED STORMS NORTHWEST OF THE WARM SECTOR.

   DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A PAIR OF 995 MB CYCLONES
   OVER N-CNTRL KS. LEADING PACIFIC COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE DRYLINE HAS
   REACHED ERN KS WITH AGITATED CU ALONG IT. THE CYCLONES SHOULD
   CONSOLIDATE AS THEY TRACK NE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
   FAR SERN NEB INTO SWRN AND W-CNTRL IA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 55-57 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE THE
   DELIMITER FOR MEAGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
   SHOULD SHIFT NE FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY ACROSS NRN MO TO CNTRL IA. 

   AS THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
   THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONFINED WARM SECTOR...COOLING ALOFT WILL
   AID IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND YIELD WEAKENING MLCIN
   /EVIDENT IN THE 12Z TOP RAOB/ AMID ONLY WEAK DIABATIC SURFACE
   HEATING. SURFACE-BASED TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BY 18-19Z INVOF THE
   NEB/KS/MO BORDER AREA. ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO THE FRONT
   AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FAST-MOVING
   LOW-TOPPED SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
   IA AND NRN MO/. FARTHER NW...ARCS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL POSE A
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL RISK...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SPATIALLY
   CONFINED AND DIMINISH WITH NRN EXTENT.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 11/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38389442 39589530 40039587 40249622 40429669 40679688
               40959699 41339693 41649668 42079625 42919474 43039350
               42679234 42349183 41729157 40969148 39739169 39149180
               38779213 38399256 38259348 38389442