MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO TX SOUTH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 221839Z - 222045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST
   AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY 20-21Z. LARGE BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS
   POSSIBLE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE DRYLINE NEAR THE CO/KS
   BORDER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM AND THEN SOUTH INTO
   THE PERMIAN BASIN. CU HAS BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE NM/WRN TX
   PANHANDLE PORTION OF THE DRYLINE...WHILE DOWNSTREAM TCU/SMALL CBS
   HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. AIR MASS
   IS QUITE MOIST FOR THIS LONGITUDE WITH 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BEING
   MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THIS IS YIELDING AN
   UNCAPPED...STRONGLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500
   J/KG. WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS MODEST CURRENTLY PER 18Z AMA
   RAOB...DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING. PRIMARY
   INITIAL RISK SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ALL HAZARDS BECOMING MORE
   PROBABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35430298 36640219 37360179 38160102 38150042 37660000
               35710018 34370034 33700091 33640217 34020310 34600325
               35430298