MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN PA / WRN MD / NRN AND ERN WV / NRN AND CNTRL
   VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161527Z - 161630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND OVER NRN VA E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
   FROM THE DELMARVA NWWD NEAR THE POTOMAC RIVER INTO WRN PA.  THE
   AIRMASS S OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE LATE THIS
   MORNING WITH PATCHY CLOUD COVER.  N OF THE BOUNDARY...WEAK
   CONVECTION AND ITS INCIPIENT CLOUD COVER OVER DE/NJ AND SERN PA HAVE
   THWARTED DESTABILIZATION FARTHER N OVER CNTRL PA SEWD INTO DE/SRN
   NJ.  

   A BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND WILL
   MOVE INTO A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT.  A
   42-KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT KDUJ AROUND 15Z WITH THIS TSTM BAND. 
   CURRENT THINKING IS ONLY A LOW RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY EXIST WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM.  FARTHER SW...STORMS MAY BE
   TRANSITIONING TO SURFACE-BASED...AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLD
   LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL AS AN
   INCREASING THREAT FOR STRONG/LOW-END SEVERE GUSTS CAPABLE OF WIND
   DAMAGE.  HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN WV NEAR THE SWRN PA STORMS.  IF
   ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
   CONSIDERED.  OTHERWISE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY
   NOT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED UNTIL LATER.

   ..SMITH/GOSS.. 06/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39858023 39937961 39587747 38787683 37817724 37647849
               39628041 39858023