MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OH...SWRN/SRN PA...NRN WV...MD...NRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 161708Z - 161845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO DMGG WINDS AND ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS FROM ERN OH SEWD
   ACROSS SWRN PA AND NRN WV. THESE THREATS WILL EVENTUALLY EXTEND EWD
   ACROSS NRN VA AND MD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   ISSUED BY 18-19Z.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR/SE OF CLEVELAND OVER
   THE PAST 1-2 HRS...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
   EXTENDING SWWD INTO W-CNTRL OH. PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER WRN
   LAKE ERIE...WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING NWRN OH AS OF 16Z. STRONG SFC
   HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OH AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
   CONVECTION...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING
   TO MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
   CNTRL/ERN OH...WITH A QUICK EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS
   PRIOR TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LIKELY MCS. 

   CONVECTION PERSISTING ACROSS WRN PA AND NERN WV HAS RESULTED IN
   EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM E-CNTRL OH INTO NRN WV...BUT
   CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
   FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL AIR MASS RECOVERY. PRIMARY THREAT IS LIKELY TO
   BE DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...BUT ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MODERATELY STRONG WLY LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
   WAS OBSERVED IN PBZ/CLE VWP DATA...AND VEERING WITHIN THE LOWEST 1
   KM AGL MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY
   WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS MORE DISCRETE. TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY
   MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A WW...LIKELY BY 18-19Z.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 06/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   40598246 41418146 41688098 40767980 39917721 39247649
               37867628 38417988 39098286 40018330 40598246