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Mesoscale Discussion 1786 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OREGON THROUGH WRN WA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141205Z - 141430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ONTO COASTAL
OREGON AND WA WILL POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. OVERALL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE WA AND OREGON COASTS. THE RAP
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE AOB 400 J/KG ALONG WITH 7-7.5
C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WIDELY SCATTERED BUT LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED
MESOSCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COUPLED LOW-MID LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ARE RESULTING IN STRONG /40+ KT/
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AS WELL LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS STORMS
MOVE ONSHORE BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE COASTAL
RANGES AND AWAY FROM THE MARINE LAYER. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.
..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/14/2016
ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR...
LAT...LON 48432444 47052357 45302377 45372423 46722431 47822476
48432444
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