Mesoscale Discussion 0334
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

   Areas affected...Permian Basin/TX South Plains into Far Northwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 111747Z - 111945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated over the
   next few hours. Overall environment supports supercells capable of
   all severe hazards and a watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...GOES-16 mesosector imagery has shown numerous attempts
   at deep convection across the Permian Basin and TX South Plains over
   the past hour. A few of these attempts now appear successful, likely
   aided by persistent low-level moisture convergence augmented by
   increasing large-scale ascent. This low-level moisture convergence
   and strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to continue for the
   next several hours, leading to more convective initiation and
   increased thunderstorm coverage. 

   Air mass continues to destabilize as low-level moisture advects
   northward and diurnal heating intensifies. Recent surface analysis
   placed 60 deg F dewpoints from SPS in far northwest TX to about 25
   miles northwest of MAF in the Permian Basin. Mesoanalysis estimates
   MLCAPE is already around 1500 to 2000 J/kg, with increase to around
   2500 J/kg likely over the next few hours. Vertical shear is
   increasing as well, creating an environment supportive of supercell
   thunderstorms. Primary threat will be large to very-large hail.
   Storms will likely be slightly elevated initially, but could become
   surface-based with time as low-level stability erodes farther east.
   Any surface-based storms would also pose a threat for damaging wind
   gusts and tornadoes.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 04/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32630254 33810161 34530003 33279910 31590106 31580231
               32630254