Mesoscale Discussion 0393
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

   Areas affected...portions of south-central into southeast Oklahoma
   and far northern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041729Z - 041900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail may accompany the stronger
   updrafts over the next couple of hours. A WW issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has been ongoing just north of an
   effective warm front over the past several hours, supported by
   low-level lift fostered by the terminus of a modest low-level jet.
   The northward advection of 11-13C 925-850 mb dewpoints beneath 7.5
   C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE
   (per 17Z mesoanalysis). The presence of a stable boundary layer and
   buoyancy constrained above 700 mb (based on some of the latest RAP
   forecast soundings) suggests that storms will remain elevated, with
   a couple of instances of severe hail possible with the stronger
   storm cores given 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. A WW issuance
   does not appear likely given the very isolated nature of the severe
   threat. 

   The severe threat may also increase later this afternoon just south
   of the Red River with more surface-based convection, and this severe
   weather scenario will be addressed by separate MCDs and possible
   watches.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34919848 35179730 35239608 35239549 34779488 34309480
               33939513 33659583 33679671 33779755 34019797 34609851
               34919848