Mesoscale Discussion 0398
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0625 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

   Areas affected...Central/North-Central Texas and extreme
   South-Central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 042325Z - 050100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 0030-0100z for
   portions of Central/North-Central Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Moist boundary-layer surge, characterized by mid 60s
   surface dew points, is advancing north across central TX and will
   soon spread into the Metroplex. Latest satellite and radar imagery
   support this with scattered showers now evident just east of Waco
   into Ellis County. Given the approaching short wave there is
   increasing concern that scattered supercells will evolve within this
   more buoyant, and strongly sheared environment. Current thinking is
   the warm frontal position may not advance appreciably north from its
   current position and given the amount of convection observed over
   southern OK this seems reasonable. As LLJ strengthens into the
   Arklatex this evening there is increasing concern for the potential
   for tornadoes. Tornado watch will likely be warranted by 01z across
   this region.

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   31649784 34009674 33749523 31419622 31649784