Mesoscale Discussion 0459
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0532 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

   Areas affected...portions of northern/central Texas.

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 112...

   Valid 122232Z - 130000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 112 continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms including supercells are gradually
   moving into a more moist and unstable thermodynamic environment near
   I-35. Increasing shear with time may also favor an enhanced tornado
   threat with more discrete convection farther south along the dryline
   in WW112.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2225 UTC, regional radar showed a cluster of
   severe thunderstorms and several semi-discrete supercells ongoing
   along the US-281/I-35 corridor. Ahead of these storms low-level
   moisture gradually increases with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
   now present. 3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE will continue to support
   robust updrafts as this cluster moves east. Coincident with the
   improving thermodynamics, strong flow aloft near a southern stream
   shortwave trough over east Texas is enhancing mid-level shear
   profiles. Regional VWPs show storms are entering 35-45 kts of
   effective shear more supportive of semi-discrete/rotating updrafts.
   Recent radar trends point to greater organization within the cluster
   over the last 15 minutes especially with two semi-discrete cells in
   the vicinity of Waco. While low-level shear is not overly strong,
   VAD hodographs and surface obs show backed low-level flow with a
   large component of streamwise vorticity within the effective inflow
   layer. Tornado potential may be increasing as storms move farther
   east into a lower LCL and stronger sheared environment. In addition,
   large hail and damaging winds will remain likely given the magnitude
   of the buoyancy and very steep lapse rates aloft.

   Greater uncertainty exists on the southern end of the cluster where
   discrete initiation has occurred near San Antonio. Displaced from
   stronger forcing, these updrafts have been slow to organize but may
   strengthen as they move farther east into better moisture.

   ..Lyons.. 04/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   32679775 32909728 33029698 33029642 32879616 32379595
               31989591 31769594 31299610 30969631 30269702 29629776
               29479803 29459835 29569846 29789842 29999829 30359806
               30699796 30939794 31349796 31769795 31939796 32679775