Mesoscale Discussion 0651
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0913 PM CDT Wed May 04 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 176...177...

   Valid 050213Z - 050345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 176, 177 continues.

   SUMMARY...Convective trends suggest that clustering/MCS development
   may occur over the next few hours along/south of the warm front.
   Damaging winds will become more common with time. Tornadoes are most
   likely with discrete storms in Northwest Texas, though line-embedded
   supercells and circulations are possible as well. Replacement
   watches will likely be needed this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Convective trends in southwestern Oklahoma and
   Northwest Texas show increasing storm coverage. Supercells are
   ongoing just south of the Red River, with the lead cell continuing
   to produced tornadoes. IR satellite trends also indicate cloud
   cooling along the warm front and NLDN shows an increase in lightning
   activity. These trends all suggest that MCS development may occur
   over the next several hours. While temperatures south of the warm
   front have cooled, low 70s F dewpoints will keep that cooling to a
   minimum. Given the downstream instability and forcing from the
   trough, storms should continue along and south of the boundary this
   evening/overnight. Damaging winds will become more common as a
   transition away from discrete cells occurs. While some activity will
   occur north of the warm front, storms there should generally be more
   of a threat for hail

   The greatest short-term tornado threat will continue to be in
   Northwest Texas with the supercells moving east. Given the low-level
   wind fields, however, tornadoes will remain possible even with more
   linear activity.

   A replacement tornado watch is likely for activity south of the
   boundary. The hail threat north of the boundary may be sufficient
   for a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Wendt.. 05/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35049951 35599650 35749585 35629481 34969447 34639489
               34529514 34099567 33679683 33679783 33629859 33699941
               33759978 33909993 34249997 34789996 35019963 35049951