Mesoscale Discussion 0983
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0651 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

   Areas affected...Southwest MN...Extreme Northwest IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302351Z - 310045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible with convection as
   it spreads across southwestern MN and extreme northwest IA.

   DISCUSSION...Weak convection has developed within the dry slot
   immediately ahead of strong short-wave trough. This activity has
   evolved along the northern fringe of steeper low-level lapse rates
   that extend across NE into extreme southwest MN. Winds have gusted
   in excess of 50kt in a few locations, most recently to 53kt at SXK.
   Very strong height falls/forcing are supporting this convection and
   gusty winds will likely be noted with these storms as they spread
   across southwestern MN. However, earlier convection has overturned
   the air mass considerably across central MN and weaker lapse rates
   should lessen more intense downdrafts. For these reasons current
   thinking is a new ww is not warranted.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 05/30/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   43039603 43929643 44679684 45189563 44679464 43479475
               43039603