Mesoscale Discussion 1132
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

   Areas affected...northeastern Colorado...far southeastern
   Wyoming...and western Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 122027Z - 122230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
   intensity as high-based storms move eastward into a more
   moist/unstable environment later this afternoon and evening across
   northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska.  These storms will pose
   a threat of large hail and damaging winds, so a severe thunderstorm
   watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent is apparent in satellite imagery
   from northern New Mexico into southern Wyoming, resulting in an
   increasing cumulus field and isolated thunderstorm development east
   of Denver.  As the convection shifts eastward into a more moist and
   unstable environment, the coverage and intensity of thunderstorms
   are expected to increase.  Given an environment characterized by
   over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 knots of effective-layer bulk
   shear (stronger to the north), the initial storms may have supercell
   characteristics with a threat for large hail and damaging winds.

   As the number of storms increases, merging outflows (aided by
   evaporative effects of high-based storms) should result in one or
   more eastward moving clusters over northeastern Colorado and the
   Nebraska Panhandle, posing a primary of severe damaging winds this
   evening.

   ..Jirak/Guyer.. 06/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39430372 40150430 41310439 42170466 42760434 43010365
               43000261 42700192 42120140 41500119 40750137 40090178
               39750242 39470291 39470291 39430372